What is a bull market today?
But on Wall Street, there are two common ways the label gets applied. One says a bull market is confirmed when a major index like the S&P 500 climbs 20 percent above its most recent low. By that standard, the bull market was confirmed in June, when the S&P 500 closed 20 percent above its October 2022 low.
With stock indexes at all-time highs, it seems we are in the midst of a new bull market. While much of the market's recent gains have come from a handful of stocks, the rally has begun to broaden in recent months. Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher.
For example, I have already explained that a new bull market became official when the S&P 500 hit a new record high on Jan. 19, 2024. But the bull market actually started 15 months earlier when the S&P 500 reached its bear-market low on Oct. 12, 2022.
Key Points. A bull market is defined by a sustained rise in stock prices over an extended period of time. Investors are optimistic about economic growth and profitability of companies. Typically characterized by increasing investor confidence and high trading volume.
Here are a few examples of some of the biggest bull markets: The Roaring Twenties: This bull market, which took place in the 1920s, was fueled by speculation and lasted until the stock market crash of 1929. It was characterized by rapid economic growth, rising asset prices, and increased consumer spending.
“This new bull market can last for another seven to nine years, as AI is expected to drive significant productivity gains for companies across the board, which will strengthen corporate earnings.”
Bull Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Return |
---|---|---|
October 2002 to October 2007 | 60 months | 1.015 |
March 2009 to February 2020 | 132 months | 4.005 |
March 2020 to January 2022 | 21 month | 1.144 |
October 2022 to present | 10 months | 0.248 |
Key Takeaways:
The 100-minus-your-age long-term savings rule is designed to guard against investment risk in retirement. If you're 60, you should only have 40% of your retirement portfolio in stocks, with the rest in bonds, money market accounts and cash.
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
---|---|
Avidity Biosciences Inc. (RNA) | 182% |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) | 206.8% |
Janux Therapeutics Inc. (JANX) | 250.9% |
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) | 254.1% |
What was the shortest bull market in history?
The shortest bull market, which ran from June 1, 1932, to Sept. 7, 1932, lasted 98 days. The longest bull market lasted 4,494 days, from Dec. 4, 1987, to March 24, 2000.
As stock prices rise, it can lead to increased wealth for investors, potentially boosting consumer spending and confidence. Additionally, a bull market may encourage businesses to invest and expand, leading to job creation and overall economic growth.
The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
Potential economic obstacles in 2024 could delay the start of a sustained bull market, but investors can still find opportunities. Consider staying cautious on U.S. stocks while shifting to bonds for potential income and capital gains.
Bear markets also may accompany general economic downturns such as a recession. Bear markets are seen as the opposite of upward-trending bull markets.
The tech boom bull market is the biggest and longest bull market ever recorded in the history of the S&P 500, returning a stunning 582% and lasting a total of 4494 days (12 years and 4 months). This period of sustained growth started in 1987 and ended dramatically with the dot-com bust.
If Monday may be the best day of the week to buy stocks, then Thursday or early Friday may be the best day to sell stock—before prices dip.
Benefits of investing during a bull market
Increased portfolio value: As asset prices increase, the value of investment portfolios generally rises. This can boost overall portfolio performance and net worth.
- Higher highs & higher lows: Higher highs and higher lows is the first step to having an uptrend. ...
- A More “Accommodative” Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve, which controls interest rates, has a significant impact on liquidity and thus, market direction.
Economic downturn or recession
However, economic indicators can change, and if there are signs of an economic downturn or recession, it can trigger a reversal in market sentiment. Factors such as slowing economic growth, rising inflation, or geopolitical tensions can contribute to the end of a bull run.
What is the average return of a bull market?
On average, stocks gain 112% during a bull market. That's against an average loss of 36% during a bear market. And, of course, stocks have only gone up over the long term.
Basic Info. S&P 500 3 Year Return is at 32.26%, compared to 33.72% last month and 58.99% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 23.25%. The S&P 500 3 Year Return is the investment return received for a 3 year period, excluding dividends, when holding the S&P 500 index.
If you're 70, you should keep 30% of your portfolio in stocks. However, with Americans living longer and longer, many financial planners are now recommending that the rule should be closer to 110 or 120 minus your age.
For years, a commonly cited rule of thumb has helped simplify asset allocation. According to this principle, individuals should hold a percentage of stocks equal to 100 minus their age. So, for a typical 60-year-old, 40% of the portfolio should be equities.
At age 60–69, consider a moderate portfolio (60% stock, 35% bonds, 5% cash/cash investments); 70–79, moderately conservative (40% stock, 50% bonds, 10% cash/cash investments); 80 and above, conservative (20% stock, 50% bonds, 30% cash/cash investments).
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