What was the bull market in the 1950s?
A Peacetime Boom
One says a bull market is confirmed when a major index like the S&P 500 climbs 20 percent above its most recent low. By that standard, the bull market was confirmed in June, when the S&P 500 closed 20 percent above its October 2022 low.
Rank | Bull Markets | Return |
---|---|---|
1 | Tech boom bull market (1987-2000) | 582.15% |
2 | Post-financial crisis recovery bull market (2009-2020) | 400.52% |
3 | Post-World War II expansion bull market (1949-1956) | 266.35% |
4 | Reaganomics bull market (1982-1987) | 228.81% |
The current bull market that started in March 2009 is the longest bull market in history. It's topped the bull market of the 1990s that lasted 113 months. However, the current bull market, which has seen the S&P 500 rise 330% in its 10+ years, is still second to the 90s bull run, which returned 417%.
Investing in the 1950s
With a generation scarred by the market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s, most people in the 1950s stayed away from stocks. In fact, it was only in 1954 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surpassed its 1929 peak, a full 25 years after the crash.
A bull market is a period of time in financial markets when the price of an asset or security rises continuously. The commonly accepted definition of a bull market is when stock prices rise by 20%.
However, the terms could come from how these animals attack: a bull thrusts its horns upward, symbolizing rising prices, while a bear swipes its paws downward, representing falling prices. Thus, a bull market is for a period of rising prices, and a “bear market” is for when prices are declining.
The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research. As noted above, the longest bull market in history ran for 11 years, from 2009 to 2020.
Bull Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Return |
---|---|---|
October 2002 to October 2007 | 60 months | 1.015 |
March 2009 to February 2020 | 132 months | 4.005 |
March 2020 to January 2022 | 21 month | 1.144 |
October 2022 to present | 10 months | 0.248 |
The shortest bull market, which ran from June 1, 1932, to Sept. 7, 1932, lasted 98 days. The longest bull market lasted 4,494 days, from Dec. 4, 1987, to March 24, 2000.
Are we in a bull market 2024?
With stock indexes at all-time highs, it seems we are in the midst of a new bull market. While much of the market's recent gains have come from a handful of stocks, the rally has begun to broaden in recent months. Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher.
The average Bull Market period lasted 6.6 years with an average cumulative total return of 339%. From when the index closes at least 20% down from its previous high close, through the lowest close reached after it has fallen 20% or more. Source: First Trust Advisors L.P., Bloomberg.
This month we are examining how the current bull market, which began in October 2022, compares to past bull markets (defined as at least a 30% rally off previous lows). Using the daily closing price of the lows reached in October 2022, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has rallied 33% in 17 months.
During the recession, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in 1957 to a peak of 7.5% in July 1958. In addition, industrial production declined by approximately 14%, and real GDP contracted by 3.7%. As a result, the stock market experienced significant losses, with the S&P 500 index falling by more than 20%.
The market gained in 1954 as the economy recovered from a recession and earnings expanded during the Cold War. While gross domestic product shrank 1.9% in the first three months of the year, it grew an average of 5.6% the next seven quarters.
More than patriotism and the financial necessities of total war, War Bonds were a good investment. At the end of ten years, the bonds matured and were worth far more than their purchase price. We can learn a lot from this generation about personal finances.
S&P 500 Index
But the early days of 2024 swept away this uncertainty as the S&P 500 reached its highest level ever, signaling we've been in bull territory for quite a while -- since the index started rebounding from its bear market low in late 2022.
Over the past 50 years, there have been five bear markets, each with a duration of one month to just over two years. The current bear market started in early 2022, so we're nearing the two-year mark. The bull markets during this period have lasted from 2.5 years to almost 13 years, with three lasting over 10 years.
Is a bull market good or bad? A bull market is generally a good thing because it can indicate economic growth and optimism among business and consumers. It may also result in equity growth and higher dividends, depending on the stock and the sector.
Among the more prominent causes were the period of rampant speculation (those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their investment, they also owed money to the entities that had granted the loans for the stock purchases), tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve (in August 1929 the discount ...
Why was the bull market important?
Bull markets typically occur with a growing economy, as rising corporate profits translate into rising stock prices. Higher profits and the expectation of still-higher profits can fuel investors' expectations, causing them to bid up asset prices as long as the future looks bright.
In the business world this manifests itself in the perennial hope of a "bull market" or a "bonanza." The word is used very frequently with reference to the market, a bull market meaning a rising market.
Bear Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Decline |
---|---|---|
March 2000 to October 2002 | 31 months | -49% |
October 2007 to March 2009 | 17 months | -56% |
February 2020 to March 2020 | 1 month | -34% |
January 2022 to October 2022 | 10 months | -25% |
However, as a singular event, the stock market crash itself did not cause the Great Depression that followed. In fact, only approximately 10 percent of American households held stock investments and speculated in the market; yet nearly a third would lose their lifelong savings and jobs in the ensuing depression.
The longest bear market lingered for three years, from 1946 to 1949. Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. How bad has the average bear been? The shallowest bear market loss took place in 1990, when the S&P 500 lost around 20%.
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