Will car loan rates go down in 2024?
McBride shares that while the high-rate environment will persist, rates will ease for most borrowers in 2024. Increased competition between lenders may help drivers secure a good rate. However, he warns, “don't expect auto loan rates to fall enough to offset the increases we've seen over the past couple of years.”
While market predictions are bullish on the funds rate — and by extension, auto loan rates — finally coming back down in 2024, it's still not a guarantee. Powell and others at the Fed remain committed to their target of 2% inflation.
Fannie Mae: Rates Will Decline to 6.4% The March Housing Forecast from Fannie Mae puts the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.7% during the first quarter of 2024, falling to 6.4% by year-end.
"2024 is probably the best year since the pandemic to buy a new car," Mark Schirmer, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, told ABC News. "2021 and 2022 were really difficult years. Dealers are talking about discounts again ... this was not happening 18 months ago.
An interest rate under 5% is a great rate for a 72-month auto loan. However, the best loan offers are only available to borrowers who have the best credit scores and payment histories.
That means the mortgage rates will likely be in the 6% to 7% range for most of the year.” Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). MBA's baseline forecast is for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% at the end of 2025 as Treasury rates decline and the spread narrows.
The expected decreasing inflationary pressure, plus the added impact of a falling federal funds rate in 2024, is likely to push mortgage rates lower. But while the Fed raised its benchmark rate fast in 2022–2023, it's expected to bring rates down at a much more gradual pace in 2024 and beyond.
It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.
Mortgage rates are going to stay above 6% through 2025, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. Goldman said the decline in mortgage rates should offer marginal improvements in housing affordability. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.62% last week after hitting a cycle-high of 7.8%.
Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore.
What is the auto loan rate forecast for 2024?
In February 2023, car shoppers could explore auto loan options with rates hovering around a more manageable terrain. Fast forward to February 2024, and the scenario has shifted. According to the J.D. Power's U.S. Automotive Forecast, we're now looking at an average new car interest rate of 6.9%.
Experts say that 2024 will be the best year to purchase a new car since 2019. As interest rates slowly drop throughout the remainder of the year, payments will become more manageable. Don't overlook manufacturer rate promotions, as they can save you thousands of dollars.
Though inventories of new autos are still well below the roughly 4 million level that prevailed before the pandemic, analysts and dealers say the rising availability suggests that 2024 will be the most affordable year of the past five in which to buy a new car or truck.
Top Auto Loan Lender | Lowest APR | Loan Amount |
---|---|---|
AutoPay | 4.67%** | $2,500 to $100,000 |
PenFed Credit Union | 5.24% | $500 to $150,000 |
Auto Approve | 5.24%** | $5,000 to $85,000 |
Consumers Credit Union | 6.54% | No minimum or maximum |
Use your annual income as a starting point to calculate how much car you can afford based on monthly payments. Financial experts recommend spending no more than about 10% to 15% of your monthly take-home pay on an auto loan payment.
Company | Used APR Range | Used Loan Terms |
---|---|---|
PenFed Best Overall | 6.49%–17.99% | 3–7 years |
AUTOPAY Best for Bad Credit/Low Rates | As low as 5.69% | 2–8 years |
Consumers Credit Union Best Credit Union | As low as 6.84% | 36–84 months |
LendingTree Best for Refinance | As low as 5.99% (Refinance) | 36–72 months (Refinance) |
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.
Date | Value |
---|---|
December 31, 2024 | 3.50% |
September 30, 2024 | 5.75% |
June 30, 2024 | 5.75% |
March 31, 2024 | 5.75% |
Buying Mortgage Discount Points
For example, if you are offered a 6 percent interest rate on a $100,000 loan, you can pay one point ($1,000) to get a 5.75 percent interest rate instead. You can buy down your interest rate by up to 1.0 percent to reduce your interest costs and get a lower payment.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
What is Fed interest rate today?
This Week | Year Ago | |
---|---|---|
Fed Funds Rate (Current target rate 5.25-5.50) | 5.5 | 5 |
The current Bank of America, N.A. prime rate is 8.50% (rate effective as of July 27, 2023). The prime rate is set by Bank of America based on various factors, including the bank's costs and desired return, general economic conditions and other factors, and is used as a reference point for pricing some loans.
Rates likely won't decrease this year
To put it simply, rates aren't expected to decrease this year. This is primarily due to the continued work from the Federal Reserve to quell inflation. But higher interest rates aren't the only thing making car loans more expensive this year.
Average 30-Year Fixed Rate
After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.
The bottom line. Today's elevated mortgage rate environment isn't preferable for homebuyers, but it doesn't mean that you should refrain from acting, either. If you discover your dream home, can afford the interest rate, find an affordable house, or have an alternative to rent, it can be worth it for you now.
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